I'm doing this Velensk style, see how it goes. Wrote this all late, late last night when I couldn't sleep. Slightly sleep-trippy, as a result.
*ahem*
Turn 1:
DS: Not the greatest recruit: Two expensive and situational Urfserkers less than ideal, two footpads on one side less than ideal, and they are not even bought at the edge of the castle. Note that a footpad on 18,5 (the lower Urfserker) could go straight south-west to village 11,9 on the first turn.
Nil: I send my leader onto a village that... I already control. Smooth. Causes my leader to waste the next turn
Turn 2:
DS: Three villages not taken on this turn. Also, there are three dwarves not on villages. Hm. Additionally, urfserkers don't lead attacks very well, due to instantly dying to melee units. Additionally, putting forces in the middle of this map is ill advised, as they do not help control villages. Missed out on 9 gold, this turn - equal to losing half a Dwarfish Fighter.
Nil: I fan out wonderfully, taking every village, save for the one I missed by sending my leader to the wrong village.
Turn 3:
DS: You got the three villages, leaving you only 6 or so gold behind me. Dwarves still going through the caves. Shouldn't you be petrified by the basilisk? Come to think of it, this is a horrible place to fight. But anyway, I don't think those two villages can be taken purely from the cave side. From all my experiences of this map, only the path going through 23,14 is viable, and only if all the other defenders are picking their noses. Also, sending the Footpad back to get a village rather than getting them in the reverse order takes up time as well (though you aren't attacking during the night, so it doesn't really matter).
Nil: I kill the Urfserker, and bring over another skeleton to help fortify the center, just to be sure. (Having two skeletons on the villages is better defense than a DA on one of them.) Unfortunately, this means that my attack force up the western side is purely composed of DAs. On the left side, I peek with an adept, see the leader, and back away. 28-1 damage is absurd.
Turn 4:
DS: Nothing of note. Retreat is better than hanging around the undead during the night.
Nil: Ineffectual Nil is ineffectual. Attacking the Urfserker was probably worth it, given the chances and the Urfserker being more expensive, but that didn't work. I wanted to pin the footpad in the village for the DAs, but attacking was silly (gets healed anyway) and he can always escape out the back. In fact, the most effective part of this turn is doing friggen DA scouting, and finding that the leader has left the village.
Turn 5:
DS: Dwarves come back down again, silly them. Should have sent them around the side. Watching the replay induces hilarity concerning my DA snagging that village - he's one hex outside of the sight/attack range of an Urfserker. And the DA has no back-up at all! Good recruits for ghost-hunting. 50% chance of 9 damage to the ghost, then if it hits, the Urfserker can finish it off. If it doesn't hit, no need to risk the Urfserker.
Nil: Having seen the Fighters and measured their movement (which could get into the water, but not to a village, I opted to leave my skeleton a bit back, as not to be glaringly obvious. I also recruited a ghoul, since being poisoned in shallow water several hexes from a village seems like bad new bears. Also a ghost, as to explore the west without putting my DA in harm's way. And thank goodness, given where the Urfserker is healing.
...In the west, the DA does his thing, not enough, of course. I probably should have moved my ghost out of there, but I figured that night-time combat against an urfserker is probably in my favor, and there's only a 50% chance of getting hit by the Thunderer, and the Footpad doesn't do much damage... yeah, shoulda called off that whole attack there, certainly until I got some skeletons. I am dumb sometimes.
Turn 6:
DS: So I am losing now. I've lost 36 gold of units, and only killed 19. That's a difference of 7 gold. ...which is more than the 6 gold difference between how quickly we grabbed villages, but less when you notice the DA sitting on the village, giving me a relative gain of 4 gold a turn for one turn. Money is dudes, but dudes aren't the same as dudes who are in the right place. My saving grace, of course, is that the two fighters are stuck in the middle, doing nothing and less. Ghost dies, to nobody's surprise.
Nil: Retreating my DAs out of range of the dwarves. The Footpads don't work me right now, not against adepts, so me having some idea how you are attacking is worth it. Probably didn't need two. I've been recruiting skeletons for your Urfs, and I send one to hide in the deep water. Using submerge leaves me very satisfied. Ghoul and skeleton take defensive positions, and my ghost moves up. For some reason, nobody seems to see my DA up there, and I don't want to spoil that I'm doing things on that side.
Turn 7:
DS: I think your footpad sees my DA. I don't know that yet, of course. It would be cool to jump him, but you're Knalgans, and it's the day, so I guess that's not really an option. I wouldn't have retreated so much on the eastern front. You're basically invulnerable during the day. I mean, sure, I could fight you, but after I do 7-2 damage to your guys, you do 7-3 or 18-1 (x2) to my poor DA. So better to get hit and run away... which means on your end that you can hit and I won't fight back. Not sure about your big footpad recruit - I generally have one for each front (for vision purposes and finishing folks off), but Dwarven Fighters are just so wonderful in this match-up.
Nil: Relief for the DA arrives. The ghost is supposed to hold the village, with the other two as back-up. Amusingly, my ghost can't see your footpad because I wanted to keep him back out of sight - I thought you still didn't know about my DA. I position my DAs to dare you to attack. Trading an DA for an Urfserker seems pretty sweet to me. Unfortunately, one skeleton is a bit visible. I also get a bat to have a better idea of what is going on in the east. Nanananananana... bat-cam!
Turn 8:
DS: On the west, not sure what your fighter is doing - dwarves are sucky in water, and a dwarf on flat land has nothing more to fear from a DAs than a dwarf anywhere else. The footpads aren't exactly the high-offense units to drive someone out of a village, either (remember, kill quickly to avoid the village healing mattering).
On the east, I now see what you were doing. Unfortunately, this makes your attack too late in the day. If only those Fighters weren't in the cave, you could have attacked earlier. I mean, this is morning - you should be hitting things already!
Nil: Awkward unit shuffling abounds as I try to figure out how to lure your Urf to his doom. I'm like a siren, but without all the flesh. Ghoul starts up the middle to distract reinforcements... and because I have nothing better to do with it.
Turn 9:
DS: You get your footpad through, causing all kinds of trouble. I figure I'm going to lose the village, because I have to hunt damn Daedryn down. However, you send your leader to roost on a village, rather than having him shoot ghosts with his BFG. On the other side, your attack starts to come together. I dislike putting evasivefoot (that's the move/resistance type) on flat terrain, but in this case it's probably worth it. This sort of screening is how you get Urfserkers to work, after all. (That and having such a strong presence after the Urfing that nobody dares attack the Urfserker. There aren't two level 1s in the game that are worth trading with an Urfserker.)
Nil: I agonize over whether to attack the urfs. But I decide to wait. More unit shuffling results. I also recruit two DAs to help hunt the footpad (and reinforce the west). Wrong units, of course - I probably should have had a DA and a Skeleton, to be better at reinforcing - the DA alone can kill the footpad, come nightfall. Too bad for me. Ghost goes to threaten the cave villages. Rule through fear of force, not force itself, right? Hopefully my one ghost will force two units to roost on those villages.
Turn 10:
DS: And the attack! Surprisingly non-violent. I would at least thrown rocks at the skeleton, and probably bashed it with a hammer. If you had done that, it may have been a fairly fair fight with the Urfserker on the hill. Also, did not really press the attack very hard on the ghost. You roost a guardsman on the hill, but you don't really need to occupy villages when you can shoot a ghost for 14 damage with that gun of yours. A more aggressive attack on the ghost would have been good, expecially since I only have two reinforcements within a turn's reach, and one DA isn't really lethal.
Nil: ...and this is the turn I probably win the game. Kill the footpad with magic (good against his high defense and low hit-points, and then kill both of the Urfserkers.
Turn 11:
DS: This is the turn where you lose the game. You don't run away with the dwarves, and they can't defend against DAs. If the DAs are going to kill you at night, don't fight them. Meanwhile, you doom a footpad and shoot ineffectually at the ghost.
Nil: Kill two footpads and a Fighter, take back both villages: now at 10/16 villages and I have more material than you. Unless I am drastically stupid, you have no chance, and should be making your time.
For those of you who are curious, I did eventually win.